Escalation in the Red Sea: What Comes Next?

Ceasing the war in Gaza as the sole means to restore international maritime security
Abdulrasheed Alfaqih
March 21, 2024

Escalation in the Red Sea: What Comes Next?

Ceasing the war in Gaza as the sole means to restore international maritime security
Abdulrasheed Alfaqih
March 21, 2024
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After more than a month since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, and amidst worsening humanitarian conditions and the international community's reluctance to shoulder responsibilities to halt the genocide of Palestinians and other war crimes and crimes against humanity, the Ansar Allah (Houthi) group announced, on November 19, 2023, the seizure of an Israeli commercial vessel in the Red Sea, forcing it to head to the port of Saleef in Hodeidah. This marked their first targeting of Israeli ships and vessels traveling to or from Israel through the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb strait in retaliation for the military operation targeting the Gaza Strip. Amidst the international community's failure to protect Palestinians and stop Israeli crimes, and after weeks of war in Gaza, from November 19, 2023, to March 14 of the current year, the Ansar Allah (Houthi) forces claimed responsibility for about 50 out of approximately 102 attacks, according to the Pentagon, targeting Israeli ships and maritime carriers in the Red Sea, Bab-el-Mandeb strait, and the Gulf of Aden.

Amid Israeli, American, and Western efforts to confine the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and prevent its escalation to a wider regional extent to protect Israel during its military operations and atrocities against Palestinians, American and British forces conducted, starting Thursday evening, January 11, 2024, until March 14, 44 airstrikes on Houthi targets. According to the Pentagon, in the first round of these airstrikes, about a hundred missiles were launched, targeting 60 objectives, killing 5 militants. On the morning of Tuesday, January 23, 2024, in its second iteration, they launched around 18 strikes targeting locations in Sana'a, Hodeidah, Al-Bayda, and Taiz. Subsequently, they repeatedly announced carrying out a series of targeting operations hitting dozens of sites in Yemeni areas under the control of the Ansar Allah (Houthi) group.

Upon tracking and independently evaluating the map of these attacks, the majority of them targeted dead objectives, previously hit multiple times by coalition and Saudi fighter jet attacks, making them mere symbolic and futile operations lacking effectiveness, feasibility, and strategy, despite the massive Western propaganda campaigns accompanying these operations. Such campaigns included repeated statements by Washington and London leaders regarding the accomplishment of these operations in disabling Houthi offensive capabilities. These were statements and claims far larger than the actual facts of these attacks, seemingly part of domestic election propaganda campaigns in the election year.

The extensive propaganda accompanying the American and British coalition airstrikes on multiple targets in areas under the control of the Houthi group in Yemen aimed to separate the targeting operations and escalation in the Red Sea from developments in Gaza, intending to strip the Houthi operations of their ethical and humanitarian dimensions linked to the situation in Gaza. Instead, they focused on providing justifications that the military operations were for the defense of the world, its interests, and welfare, to compensate for their total lack of any moral, humanitarian, or legal substance. This was to evade the fact that these operations were, in defense of Israel, to secure the completion of its horrific military operations, undermining any reasons for the life and survival of Palestinians.

Irrespective of interpretations, impressions, and desires, and with a factual and detached approach to realities, the escalation in the Red Sea and its subsequent consequences stemmed from the Israeli war in Gaza and remains intertwined with the dire situation in Gaza. The operations and their repercussions are exacerbated by the ongoing atrocities in Gaza and the worsening humanitarian crisis, which persist without any deterrence. Therefore, the cessation of these operations and the halt to the escalation in the Red Sea, as repeatedly emphasized by the leadership of the Ansar Allah (Houthi) group, can only be achieved by ending the conflict in Gaza, preventing further deterioration of the humanitarian situation there, and halting the Israeli crimes against Palestinians since the initiation of Israeli military operations following the attack by Palestinian factions on the Gaza envelope area south of Israel on October 7th, 2023.

Throughout nearly a decade of conflict in Yemen since September 2014, it has remained a fact that international navigation through the Red Sea, Bab-el-Mandeb strait, and the Gulf of Aden has largely remained insulated from the fires of the conflict. Despite the prolonged duration of the war and the involvement of numerous regional and international parties, there have been no recorded incidents of maritime carriers or commercial vessels being targeted while traversing these waters. This is notable even though these vessels were within the firing range and operational scope of various Yemeni war factions, including the Ansar Allah (Houthi) group. However, it is important to note that concerns regarding the security and safety of international navigation throughout these years of conflict have primarily been addressed through mere statements and media warnings.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, addressing naval officers in Haifa on Wednesday, August 2, 2018, nearly five years before October 7, 2023, had previously warned Iran of a "military confrontation by an international alliance, encompassing all branches of Israel's military, should Iran attempt to close the Bab-el-Mandeb strait through its allies."

Apart from evaluating the effectiveness of the American-British coalition's attacks on various targets belonging to the Houthi forces, it cannot be overlooked that these attacks occurred amidst unprecedented ethical, legal, and political exposure on the part of the United States, Britain, and the West. This exposure stems from their unequivocal financial, military, political, and diplomatic support for Israel's crimes and horrific war against Palestinians. Furthermore, it's notable that decision-makers in both countries lack the minimum requirements for understanding the current context in the region and Yemen. This includes the central importance of the Palestinian issue for the majority of Arab populations and the profound impact of the interactions of that issue amidst eroding trust in America and Britain within alliance circles before adversaries.

The headlines and contents of the official and unofficial speeches of the American-British coalition accompanying their operations against the Houthi group in Yemen, including mentioning Iran's menace and dangers, reveal a vast and deep gap between the realities of the situation and the speech and decision makers. Public awareness now encompasses Iran's ambitions, malice, threats, snares, and, to an equal extent, the ambitions, malice, threats, snares, machinations, and lies of America, Britain, and Israel. In fact, it is no longer difficult to recognize that no one serves Iran and its allies, and all the radical formations in the region, more than what Israel and its supporters, America, Britain, and the international community do in Gaza. In the past few weeks, Iran and all the radical formations in the region have achieved extensive free gains, which they have not achieved or dreamed of achieving over many decades, and on multiple levels. It is a lie to say that Iran and its allied formations, along with all the radical formations in the region, do not gain wider influence in the region and greater popularity every day, at the expense of what Israel, America, Britain, the West, and their allies in the region are losing.

It is empirically evident that the approach of the US administration and its allies towards the war in Palestine, and its repercussions in the region, including the escalation in the Red Sea, effectively leads to catastrophic reverse consequences. Israel and its supporters accumulate a heavy load of unprecedented atrocities committed against Palestinians, while the escalation in the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb strait intensifies, enhancing the effectiveness of Houthi attacks. These attacks pragmatically achieve a range of undisclosed secondary objectives, in addition to their stated ones, serving as a live testing ground for the development and showcasing of Houthi offensive means and capabilities. Furthermore, there is an increasing likelihood of the escalation widening against navigation related to Israel to alternative international shipping routes via the Cape of Good Hope.

I can clearly state, as someone opposed to Iranian policy and its allied formations, that we can criticize and attack the roles of Iran, its allied formations, and all other radical formations in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and elsewhere in the region, even within Iran itself. We have enough facts, arguments, evidence, and courage for that, except for their roles in Palestine and the Palestinian cause. It is the only cause where we cannot find the minimum of facts, arguments, and evidence sufficient to criticize and condemn their adoption and support, whether for religious or ideological reasons, geopolitical purposes, cunning propaganda, or any other motive. In addition to criticism being ethically and objectively exposed in such cases, lacking integrity, accuracy, and responsibility, it also lacks the minimum intelligence, acumen, honor, and sound judgment.

In conclusion, and with all due consideration, ending the escalation and chaos in the Red Sea will not be achieved through futile military operations purportedly aimed at destroying the Houthi offensive capabilities, nor through massive propaganda and diatribes against the Houthis. Instead, the shortest path to ending the escalation and chaos in the Red Sea, with the least cost, begins and ends with halting Netanyahu's and his extremist government's adventures, stopping the torrent of atrocities committed against the Palestinian people, and ending the bloodshed in Gaza. Only then can arguments, debates, and benign efforts to expose villains find a place in people's interests and attention.

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